With Bitcoin's bull market now officially over, the landscape is changing rapidly. Market indicators are shifting, and volatility seems to be creeping in. This post will delve into what this means for the average crypto investor and for those using crypto payments for business.
A Shift in Perspective
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, announced on March 18, 2025, that the Bitcoin bull market has come to a close. He predicts a bearish trend lasting between 6 to 12 months. Not exactly the news we were hoping for, right? Bitcoin has already shown a 15% drop in the last 30 days and declined 0.8% in the last 24 hours. The market is now watching the support levels at $80,000 and resistance at $92,600 closely.
Industry leaders have mixed feelings. Peter Schiff is predicting a much deeper fall down to $65,000. On the flip side, Ali Martinez has noticed miners are selling off their holdings. The reactions are telling: the uncertainty in crypto and banks is palpable.
Understanding Market Indicators
Market indicators are telling us that something has changed. The ETF inflows have dried up, and the realized cap metrics show less liquidity coming into Bitcoin. This could lead to increased price swings. Best to keep an eye on these metrics.
Alternative Metrics to Gauge Bitcoin's Health
If you want to look beyond traditional ETF inflows to assess the market, consider these alternative metrics:
- Terminal Price: A metric that predicts peak prices using Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) and Bitcoin's supply.
- Puell Multiple: This looks at miner revenue against its 365-day moving average. Could be telling us that we're nearing the end of a bull cycle.
- MVRV Z-Score: Compares market value to realized value, indicating when Bitcoin is over or undervalued.
- Active Address Sentiment: Looks at changes in active addresses along with price movements for sustainability.
- Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR): Measures realized profits, which can indicate profit-taking behavior.
- Hash Rate: Important for network stability and security.
These metrics might give you a fuller picture of Bitcoin's health, especially when you're trying to make those crypto currency payments.
Adapting: Strategies for Businesses
So what does this mean for businesses? Here are some strategies that might help crypto-friendly SMEs in Europe:
- Diversification: Consider investing in a range of cryptocurrencies, including stablecoins, to manage volatility.
- Compliance: Be aware of changing regulations, like the EU's MiCA framework, to maintain trust.
- Tech Use: Leverage AI for data analysis and automated platforms for managing investments.
- Stablecoins: In a downturn, stablecoins can be a more stable payment method.
- Liquidity Management: Maintain a good liquidity position to weather downturns and utilize liquidity management tools.
- Watch the Regulatory Landscape: Keep an eye on how traditional financial systems interact with crypto.
It's a tough market out there, but by staying informed and flexible, businesses can find a way to succeed through this bearish cycle. Crypto payments are still on the table, but we have to be smart about it.
